This year’s big winner in the stock market has been commercial real estate: a surge of 12.8% at the average mutual fund investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs). That’s the group’s sixth double-digit gain in seven years.
But the very success of real estate raises the specter that a correction is due. In addition, the Federal Reserve has its hands around the economy’s neck, trying to wring the exuberance out, and landlords go broke when the economy faints.
At least two factors argue in favor of real estate, though. The first is that recessions have become shorter and milder in recent decades, as the Fed gets better at calibrating its actions.
“The Fed is increasing rates in an effort to engineer a steady-growth economy, and commercial real estate can thrive exceptionally well in that (environment),” says David Lee, manager of T. Rowe Price Real Estate (TRREX).
Secondly, a mountain of cash has been building up on the sidelines amid today’s chaotic markets, and some of it is destined to cascade through the property sector.
“Our belief is that there is in excess of $100 billion of capital, including leverage, that’s waiting to be invested in commercial real estate,” says Barry Vinocur, publisher of REIT Wrap, a daily e-mail newsletter focusing on the group. The total capitalization of the REIT sector is only $341 billion.
I have long been an advocate of real estate funds for income investors, and I own one in my model portfolio of exchange-traded funds. But I’m increasingly bullish on a role for real estate in an equity fund portfolio. I think it’s likely that REITs will outperform the stock market for at least the next three to five years, and probably longer.